KANSAS CITY, MO. — With an April 2 deadline set by the White House fast approaching, new tariffs and any retaliation they provoke threaten to upend the entire US food system, from grain farmers and meat producers to food and beverage companies, industry sources said.
“We are living in truly unprecedented times — first the global pandemic, and now what could be the beginning of a global trade war,” said Randy Strychar, president of Oatinformation, told attendees at the North American Millers’ Association (NAMA) Spring Conference in Scottsdale, Ariz. on March 9.
“Quite frankly, every aspect of life on this planet is going to be touched in one way or another by these tariffs and everything else that comes along with it,” Strychar said.
A day later, at the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) annual convention in Carlsbad, Calif., CSX Transportation President and Chief Executive Officer Joseph Hinrichs had a similar message on the topsy-turvy tariff developments that have shaken the US agriculture and transportation industries since early February.
“Every day we get up and read the paper, look online, look for tweets,” Hinrichs said March 10. “You have to stay engaged, you’ve got to be involved in the conversation, you’ve got to try to influence — as hard as that can be sometimes… I think we’re going to go through a tumultuous period, and then I hope it will settle down.”
On March 16, President Donald Trump promised reporters aboard Air Force One that the White House’s new tariffs, some paused, on top trade partners including Canada, Mexico and China would go forward as planned.
“April 2 is a liberating day for our country,” the president said. “We’re getting back some of the wealth that very, very foolish presidents gave away because they had no clue what they were doing.”
With the potential resumption of a 25% tariff on US agricultural imports from Canada and Mexico just weeks away, and more “retaliatory” tariffs threatened against a litany of nations, here are a few key tariff developments since February.
Universal tariff on steel, aluminum
On March 12, the White House implemented a new 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports while also eliminating some existing country-specific exemptions.
That potentially inflates the cost of anything that’s metal — in the case of the food industry, for example, canned goods — meaning producers already grappling with increasing ingredient costs now may pay more for packaging, too.
On March 16, President Donald Trump promised reporters aboard Air Force One that the White House’s new tariffs, some temporarily paused, on top trade partners including Canada, Mexico and China would go forward as planned.
| Source: ©RONNIECHUA – STOCK.ADOBE.COMAddressing potential new tariffs on aluminum in an earnings call in February, James Quincey, CEO of The Coca-Cola Co., said his company could be forced to shift more packaging from aluminum cans to plastic bottles.
Bill Butcher, founder of Port City Brewing Company, Alexandria, Va., recently told Barron’s a similar story, adding that potential tariffs on Canadian malted barley imports also threatened his brewery’s bottom line.
“As the aluminum tariffs have kicked in the major beer suppliers in the country are switching a lot of their production back to bottles,” Butcher said.
Last week, industry concerns escalated when the White House threatened to double the new tariff on steel and aluminum to 50%, in response to the Canadian province of Ontario retaliating by placing a surcharge on electricity it sends to the United States. Ontario rescinded the surcharge.
Canada and Mexico paused
Canada was the top exporter of steel to the United States in 2024 and Mexico was third. The two countries, along with China, are the United States’ leading trade partners, accounting for 41% of total US trade in 2024, according to US Census Bureau Trade data (Mexico 15.8%, Canada 14.3% and China 10.9%). The countries are also the US pet food industry’s biggest export markets. In 2024, the industry exported $1.22 billion worth of US dog and cat foods to Canada, $296.57 million to China and $234.43 million to Mexico, according to the US Census Bureau Trade data But they’ve been squarely in the White House tariff crosshairs since Trump’s second term began in January.
Since early February, the White House has threatened to impose a 25% across-the-board tariff on all imports from its two North American neighbors, with those tariffs at times briefly taking effect. The result has been widespread uncertainty.
In the latest salvo, the White House paused the 25% tariff affecting most agricultural products until April 2, deferring to existing trade terms in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Trump negotiated in 2018 during his first term in office as a replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement.
With the deadline for their resumption now weeks away, commodities from oats to sugar to meat and cheese face significant challenges.
“In 2024, the United States had a new record-high year for cheese exports,” said Lucas Fuess, senior dairy analyst for RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness. “Much of that goes to Mexico. So, any threat of retaliatory tariff action from Mexico or China is a threat to US dairy exports overall.”
“We could be looking at higher US cheese production coupled with restricted US cheese exports,” Fuess added. “That could be a real double-whammy for the cheese market.”
China, the big one
And then there’s China, the world’s largest food export market. On February 4, the White House placed an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, later adding another 10% to 20% on Chinese goods in early March.
China has responded with several retaliatory moves. On Feb. 10, the Chinese government placed a 15% tariff on some US energy products and a 10% tariff on agricultural machines. The country then followed up March 10 with an additional 15% tariff on US chicken, wheat and corn, and a 10% tariff on US soybeans, sorghum, meat, dairy and vegetables.
China also has moved to restrict US food producers’ export abilities, placing US companies on its unreliable entities list and revoking soybean export privileges for multiple US firms, including CHS Inc., Louis Dreyfus Company Grains Merchandising and EGT.
In 2024, the US was the No. 2 beef exporter to China (about $2.5 billion in total value), behind only Brazil, according to Chinese customs records.
| Source: ©THANAPUN – STOCK.ADOBE.COMOn March 16, China marked as expired the beef export privileges of more than 1,000 US meat plants, representing two-thirds of the industry. The next day it restored export privileges for US pork and poultry plants it had marked as expired but left the beef trade in limbo.
“What is it going to mean, for example, if meat is tariffed going in and corn is also tariffed going in?” said Shane Smith, president and CEO of Smithfield Foods, while speaking at the Bank of America Consumer and Retail Conference on March 12.
A study by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF) found pork and beef exports also boost the bottom line for US corn and soybean producers.
“A significant share of the corn and soybeans we grow locally is ultimately exported through pork and beef,” said Dave Bruntz, USMEF vice chairman, a corn, soybean and fed cattle producer from south-central Nebraska.
In 2024, the US was the No. 2 beef exporter to China (about $2.5 billion in total value), behind only Brazil, according to Chinese customs records.
Europe, too
The White House has threatened to expand its growing trade war with other nations beyond Canada, Mexico and China, citing April 2 as a date it could do so. President Trump has made several statements directed at European nations, suggesting they may be the next tariff target.
The European Union already has responded to the universal tariffs on steel and aluminum products with retaliatory tariffs of its own, laid out on March 12, affecting roughly $28 billion of US products. Beginning in April, US poultry, beef, and some dairy and alcoholic beverages will face new import levies in the region.
A planned 50% tariff on US whiskey has drawn the ire of the White House. President Trump responded March 13 by threatening a 200% tariff on all EU alcohol exports to the United States.
“We don’t like tariffs because we think tariffs are taxes and they are bad for business and they are bad for consumers,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on March 13. “We have always said at the same time that we will defend our interests.”
Any EU tariffs that go into effect would deal a substantial blow to the US alcohol industry, said Holly Seidewand, owner of First Fill Spirits in Saratoga Springs, NY, in a recent interview with The Associated Press.
“This ongoing tariff war doesn’t just harm importers — it weakens domestic brands, disrupts distributors and squeezes retailers who rely on global selections,” she said. “In the end, consumers will bear the brunt of it all.”
Read the latest updates on tariff issues impacting the pet food industry.
